Domestic aluminum ingot inventory growth almost stagnated. Pay attention to the interference of imported supply to social inventory [SMM data]

On March 18, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots was 847,000 tons, and the amount for sale was 721,000 tons, which was 4,000 tons higher than last Thursday and 356,000 tons higher than the pre-holiday level, staying at a low level for the same period of past seven years. Since mid-March, the aluminum ingot inventory has almost stagnated and is infinitely close to the high of 850,000 tons predicted before the holiday.

According to SMM statistics, the outflow of aluminum ingots from warehouses in the fourth week after the holiday was 109,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from the third week after the holiday.

According to SMM research, the volume of railway cargo in transit has been relatively low recently, and the downstream operating rate increased steadily in March. With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons, the overall aluminum ingot outflow from warehouses remained stable. Although it is subject to the interference of imported goods, last week's outflow from warehouses fell slightly, but SMM has reason to believe that inventory will drop in the short term.

At the same time, according to SMM analysis, the first batch of aluminum production resumption in Yunnan is expected in the near future. It has not yet had an impact on the domestic aluminum social inventory in March and the subsequent destocking turning point. It will only have a small impact on the arrivals in south China after April (daily arrivals are expected to increase by about 2,000 tons), and the overall impact on domestic inventories will be relatively limited.

Recently, the outflow of aluminum billets from warehouses also declined. However, due to the significant decline in the arrivals of aluminum billets, the pace of domestic aluminum billets destocking has continued and accelerated this week.

According to SMM statistics, the domestic social inventory of aluminum billets on March 18 was 249,700 ton, down 8,500 tons WoW. The inventory dropped by 26,000 tons. The destocking speed of other regions accelerated except for a slight growth in Wuxi. According to SMM statistics, the outflow of aluminum billets from warehouses in the fourth week after the holiday was 50,200 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons from the third week after the holiday.

SMM believes that although the current import window has been closed, due to the opening of the import window in early March, the recent inflow of imported goods has been relatively large. It is necessary to pay attention to the interference of imported goods on social inventories, and domestic aluminum smelters and aluminum billets plants still hold stocks, deserving attention.

SMM predicts that domestic aluminum ingot inventories will maintain stable in the second half of March before the inflection point of destocking occurs. The high point of aluminum ingot inventories after the holiday may be around 850,000-900,000 tons. The inflection point of aluminum ingot inventories is expected to be this Thursday or next week; while aluminum billets continued to decline. It is necessary to pay close attention to the recovery of domestic consumption after the holiday and the performance of downstream peak seasons.